September Jobs Report: 29,000 Jobs Against Forecasts of…
By Tobi Opeyemi Amure
AI summary of the source article
The September US jobs report showed payroll growth of 29,000, trailing consensus estimates that ranged from 84,000 to 98,000. Backwards revisions subtracted 60,000 jobs across July and August combined, flipping July to a net loss of 10,000 positions. Unemployment edged up to 4.2%, and the private-industry diffusion index slipped below 50 to 49.0. Following the weaker data, pricing for an October Federal Reserve interest rate hike plummeted to roughly 15%, down from about 70% a week earlier. This creates tension with the Fed's latest dot plot, which showed 16 of 18 officials projecting another rate increase in 2026.
Why it matters
The weak labor data sharply lowered market odds of an upcoming Federal Reserve rate hike to roughly 15%, opening a wide gap between investor expectations and Fed officials' projections.
Key facts
- September nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, while July and August payrolls were revised down by a net 60,000.
- The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the private-industry diffusion index fell to 49.0.
- Market-implied odds for an October Fed rate hike dropped to around 15%, down from about 70% a week prior.