Seasonal Patterns in Digital Asset Markets: Which Months…
By Damilola Esebame
AI summary of the source article
Bitcoin's historical seasonal patterns have broken down amid increasing institutional participation. Research from Coinbase concluded that calendar months are not statistically dependable predictors of whether Bitcoin's monthly returns will be positive or negative.
Why it matters
The shift matters because it undermines calendar-based risk management frameworks.
Key facts
- Bitcoin fell roughly 4% in October 2025 and 7.3% in October 2026, marking back-to-back October losses in the post-2016 sample.
- September posted positive returns for four consecutive years from 2023 through 2026, defying its historical negative average.
- Coinbase institutional research found calendar month is not a statistically dependable predictor of Bitcoin's monthly log return signs.
Source excerpt · FinanceFeeds
KEY TAKEAWAYS October delivered Bitcoin's highest median return at 15.4% across 13 years through 2025, earning the Uptober label from crypto traders, according to Kaiko research data. September remains the weakest month historically for Bitcoin with an average loss of about 3% through 2025, though three consecutive green Septembers from 2023 through 2025 challenged the pattern significantly. Coinb…