How Macro Events Move Crypto: A Calendar-Based Guide to the…
By Damilola Esebame
AI summary of the source article
Macro events including Federal Reserve decisions and CPI releases produce measurable effects on Bitcoin prices. Institutional research indicates price reactions correlate closely with US dollar movements and are transmitted mechanically through spot Bitcoin ETF flows.
Why it matters
After ETFs, institutional capital flows create a direct mechanical link between macro expectations and Bitcoin's spot price.
Key facts
- Bitcoin rallied after only one of eight FOMC meetings in 2025, indicating a sell-the-news pattern.
- Block Scholes research revealed that CPI surprises accounted for roughly 25% of Bitcoin's first-hour returns across a six-year sample.
- Bitcoin's 52-week correlation with the US dollar index reached approximately negative 0.85 through the first half of 2026.
Source excerpt · FinanceFeeds
KEY TAKEAWAYS Bitcoin rallied after only one of eight FOMC meetings in 2025, according to CoinGecko, suggesting a sell-the-news pattern around Fed decisions. Block Scholes research found CPI surprises explained 25% of Bitcoin's first-hour returns across a six-year sample, with peak sensitivity reaching 52% R-squared. The FOMC holds eight scheduled meetings in 2026, with the current federal funds r…