Fed Minutes Show Most Officials Want Another Hike, but…
By Rick Steves
AI summary of the source article
Federal Reserve minutes indicate that most policymakers favored another interest-rate hike before the end of 2026, supported by projections where 16 of 18 officials signaled at least one more increase. At the September 16 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise the target range to 3.75%–4.00% amid persistent inflation. Subsequent data, including August core PCE remaining at 3.0% and September payroll growth slowing to 29,000, has damped expectations for consecutive hikes. CME FedWatch data reflected an 81.7% probability of no change at the October meeting, while Polymarket priced a roughly 75% chance of a December hike.
Why it matters
The Federal Reserve's timing on interest-rate moves directly influences market liquidity, borrowing costs, and valuations across assets including equities, gold, and cryptocurrencies.
Key facts
- The FOMC voted 12-0 on September 16 to raise the target rate range to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase since 2023.
- Projections showed 16 of 18 Fed officials anticipated at least one more rate hike before the end of the year.
- CME FedWatch priced an 81.7% probability of no rate change at the October 27-28 meeting following slower September job growth of 29,000 payrolls.