Fed Decision Wednesday: 94 of 100 Economists Expect a Hold…
By Abdelaziz Fathi
AI summary of the source article
A Reuters poll found 94 of 100 economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold its target rate at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28, while all 100 expect a December rate increase. Market odds for an October hike dropped significantly.
Why it matters
The distinction matters because the Fed is deciding just six days before the November 3 midterm elections and only one day before two of the most important U.S. macro releases of the quarter.
Key facts
- A Reuters poll showed 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to keep rates at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28, with all 100 expecting a December hike.
- Market-based expectations for an October rate hike declined from about 73% on September 23 to roughly 7%-10% by late October.
- The Fed previously raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16 to set the target range at 3.75%-4.00%.
Source excerpt · FinanceFeeds
The Federal Reserve goes into Wednesday's rate decision with almost none of the suspense markets were pricing a month ago. A Reuters poll conducted October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to leave its target range unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28. All 100 expect a rate increase at the December meeting. That is a dramatic shift from September 23, when CME FedWatch pricing put…