Brent’s November Contract Expired at $103.50.…
By Tobi Opeyemi Amure
AI summary of the source article
Brent crude's headline price drop from $103.50 to $98.03 occurred because the November contract expired on 30 September, shifting the front-month quote to the cheaper December contract. Both contracts gained on the day, with November settling up 0.9% and December up 1.9%. The $5.47 gap reflects backwardation driven by immediate Hormuz supply constraints, with prices sloping downward to $81.14 by December 2027. Near-term support has been reinforced by stalled Iran talks, China halting fuel exports, and partially recovered Saudi pipeline infrastructure, pushing December Brent back near $99.90 on Thursday morning.
Why it matters
Headline price declines can be misleading during contract rolls when markets are in steep backwardation. The downward-sloping futures curve indicates traders expect Hormuz shipping disruptions to ease over time rather than permanently reprice crude.
Key facts
- November Brent expired at $103.50 and December took over front-month trading at $98.03, creating an apparent $5.47 drop despite both contracts gaining on the day.
- The Brent futures curve slopes down to $81.14 by December 2027, which is almost 19% below front-month levels.
- Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports recovered to 23.3 million barrels daily, while JPMorgan tracks Middle East crude at 17.5 million barrels daily.